Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
