A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
